Over the next few days, the region will experience a warm spell with rain showers.
Today, temperatures are expected to reach 9 ËšC in Windsor and 6 ËšC in London with an estimated 10 – 15 mm of rainfall.
Daytime high temperatures are expected to remain above freezing into the weekend with an additional 5 – 10 mm of rainfall predicted for Friday. Snow surveys taken last Friday suggested there is on average 90 mm of rainfall equivalent stored in the snowpack of the Upper Thames region, with decreasing amounts heading downstream, and around 25 mm water equivalent in the snowpack near the mouth of the Thames River.
The predicted rainfall and associated snowmelt, will cause the Thames River to rise and flood the river flats from Delaware to Chatham.
This could occur by Thursday afternoon due to our local runoff and be sustained into early next week as water from the Upper Thames watershed moves through the system. Persons undertaking agricultural activities in the river flats should be advised of these conditions.
The predicted flows will be high enough to initiate the breakup of ice cover on the Thames River and present a risk of ice jam related flooding. This could occur by Thursday due to the current flows in the river combined with the anticipated local runoff. Areas downstream of Chatham to the mouth at Lighthouse Cove would be more susceptible to ice jam flooding at the predicted flows.
Flooding is also likely to occur on the region’s smaller watercourses. Many roadside and agricultural ditches are still filled with snow and ice making it difficult for the water to drain off the landscape.
People should take extra caution and avoid the river, lakes, ditches, streams, and ponds. Ice conditions will degrade and a combination of slippery banks, moving/melting ice and cold water is particularly dangerous. Parents should pay special attention to keep their children away from the water.
The Lower Thames Valley Conservation Authority will continue to monitor conditions and will issue additional messages as required.
