The Ontario government has released its 2026-27 First Quarter Finances, the first update on the province’s economic and fiscal outlook since the release of the 2026 Ontario Budget.
The report shows the government’s fiscal plan has kept the province on track while keeping costs down for families, despite ongoing economic uncertainty.
“Our government’s prudent and responsible management of Ontario’s finances has enabled us to navigate economic uncertainty and make strategic investments that strengthen our economy and communities, while cutting taxes,” said Peter Bethlenfalvy, Minister of Finance. “Our plan will continue to protect Ontario’s workers, businesses, and jobs from the impacts of U.S. tariffs while building a more resilient and self-reliant economy for decades to come.”
Despite increased global economic uncertainty, the government’s fiscal outlook remains largely unchanged. Private-sector forecasts for Ontario’s real GDP growth in 2026 have moderated since the release of the budget, reflecting weaker-than-expected economic growth in the first quarter and ongoing overseas conflicts.
Revenue is expected to improve to $232 billion, $0.1 billion higher than expected in the 2026 budget, while Ontario’s net debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to remain unchanged at 37.7 per cent. Program expense is projected to be $227.1 billion, an increase of $0.1 billion from the budget, while the deficit projection remains at $13.8 billion.
Following the release of the 2026 budget, all four major credit rating agencies reaffirmed Ontario’s AA credit rating with stable outlooks. The budget included a $1.5-billion reserve to protect the fiscal outlook against unforeseen changes in revenues and expenses, which remains unchanged, while interest and other debt servicing charges are projected at $17.2 billion, consistent with the budget.
The government says it will provide its next update on the province’s economic and fiscal outlook as part of the 2026 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review later this year.
