The St. Clair Region Conservation Authority issued a flood outlook bulletin on Wednesday, February 16, 2022.
“A Special Weather Statement from Environment Canada has been issued ahead of warm temperatures, mixed precipitation and strong winds,’ SCRCA officials say.
“Forecasts are calling for above-freezing temperatures in the single digits today with 10-25 mm of rain beginning this evening and continuing into Thursday afternoon, where dropping temperatures are predicted to bring freezing rain and ice pellets followed by snow.”
A snow survey conducted by staff on February 15 indicated between 19 and 32 mm of water equivalent across the watershed, with an average value of 25 mm, SCRCA officials added.
“Recent ice measurements on the Sydenham River saw approximately 15-20 cm in thickness alongside areas of open water,” SCRCA officials say.
“Current conditions on Lake Huron include thin, medium and new lake ice towards the southern end of the lake and ice shelving along the coastline, with open water in the middle of the lake. Continuing south, the St. Clair River has thick, medium and thin brash ice and Lake St. Clair is predominately ice covered, with fast ice near the eastern shore.”
Winds are forecast to be southerly today with sustained winds between 30 and 40 km/h, gusting upwards of 60 km/h, SCRCA officials say.
“Winds are predicted to become northerly Thursday morning, with sustained winds upwards of 50 km/h and gusts between 60 and 70 km/h, continuing overnight into early Friday when winds will start to dissipate,” SCRCA officials say.
“Waves are predicted to be 2-3 m on Lake Huron during the event.”
Rain and melting snow are anticipated to lead to ponding, runoff and minor flooding into fields, parks and natural floodplain areas.
Conditions will be favourable for the weakening of ice and ice jamming is possible.
Strong winds and waves may also shift ice, and northerly winds could promote the movement of ice from Lake Huron into the St. Clair River where it could build up and impact flow, SCRCA officials added.
“Individuals are reminded to avoid shorelines, watercourses and flooded areas due to dangerous conditions, slippery banks and cold, swift moving water,” SCRCA officials say.
“Children and pets should be kept away from the water and off of frozen waterbodies. The Conservation Authority continues to monitor watershed conditions and will issue advisories to municipalities and media should flood issues arise. Municipal emergency response staff and road superintendents should monitor local conditions closely.”
This message will remain in effect until Friday, February 18, 2022, unless otherwise updated.
